Potential malaria outbreak in Germany due to climate warming: risk modelling based on temperature measurements and regional climate models |
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Authors: | Marcel Holy Gunther Schmidt Winfried Schröder |
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Institution: | (1) Chair of Landscape Ecology, University of Vechta, PO Box 1553, 49364 Vechta, Germany;; |
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Abstract: | Purpose Climate warming can change the geographic distribution and intensity of the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as
malaria. The transmitted parasites usually benefit from increased temperatures as both their reproduction and development
are accelerated. Lower Saxony (northwestern Germany) has been a malaria region until the 1950s, and the vector species are
still present throughout Germany. This gave reason to investigate whether a new autochthonous transmission could take place
if the malaria pathogen was introduced again in Germany. |
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