中国电力系统低碳转型的路径探析——基于社会技术转型思路

社会技术转型的多层视角(MLP)是转型理论的最新进展,它认为转型是由三个层面——微观层的技术利基,中观层的社会技术体制和宏观层的大环境——相互作用引起的一个非线性的演化过程。该思路通过分析技术和社会因素之间的互动关系,寻求理解社会技术体制的长期变化。本文以MLP为分析思路,研究我国电力系统现行体制已经发生的动态变化;并从短期,中期和长期三个时间维度,对我国低碳电力系统转型路径提出一个概念性的分析框架。短期的转变路径,延续和发展现有体制结构和治理模式,通过体制内行为主体有意识地调整创新活动和发展的方向,来解决体制内部矛盾和压力,实现政府2020年的减排目标和可再生能源目标。中期的重构路径,基本实现电源结构实质性改变,火力发电比例逐步下降,可再生能源发电对其主导地位形成冲击和挑战,电力系统呈现百花齐放百家争鸣之势态。长期的重置路径通过新的低碳能源技术创新的质的突破和飞跃,实现高煤高碳的电力体系由新的低碳体制取代这一长期目标。本文从理论和方法上丰富了目前我国低碳转型的讨论,对政策制定者和相关的行为主体也可提供一种有益的参考。

Exploring Transition Pathways for a Decarbonized Electricity System in China——Based on the Socio-technical Transition Approach

The Multi-lever Perspective(MLP) of socio-technical transition is the new development of transition theory.It claims that transition is a non-linear and evolutional process through three interlocking levers(technological niches in micro-lever,socio-technical regime in meso-lever,landscape in macro-lever),and seeks to understand the long time changes of the socio-technical regime by analyzing the interaction between technological and social factors.Drawing upon MLP approach and its typology of transition pathways,this paper first describes and analyses the dynamitic changes that have taken place in the electricity system in China.Then it proposes a conceptual framework of the transition pathways for a decarbonized electricity system,in short-term,mid-term and long-term dimensions.Along the short-term transformation path,the electricity system continues and extends existing institutional structures and governance models.It will achieve the government’s 2020 emission reduction targets and renewable energy targets,through the regime actors’ conscious adjustment of their innovation and development directions,which will mitigate the internal conflicts and pressures in the regime.Along the mid-term reconfiguration path,electricity system will experience substantive changes in electricity resource structure.Thermal power gradually decreases.Its dominance will be challenged by the renewable energy generation.The power system will turn out to be diversified mode.With the final breakthroughs of innovation of new low-carbon energy technologies,high-carbon coal power system will eventually be replaced by low-carbon system along the long-term re-alignment path.Theoretically and methodologically,this analysis will enrich the debates on low-carbon transition in China.It will also be useful informing policy-makers and other stakeholders.