岷江上游泥石流堵河可能性的经验公式判别

泥石流堵塞主河，特别是堵断主河后发生重大灾害的实例屡见不鲜，对泥石流堵河的研究也方兴未艾。选取岷江上游具有代表性的堵河型泥石流沟4条、堵塞型泥石流沟及不堵河型泥石流沟各2条，通过文献查阅、实地调查得到各泥石流沟的基本数据、泥石流堵河状况及入汇处主河特征的资料，对堵河型泥石流基本特征进行分析总结，并与堵塞型、不堵河型泥石流沟进行比较，得出计算泥石流堵断主河可能性大小的经验公式，并对所选典型泥石流沟进行了计算。经分析，计算结果与实际相符，故在岷江上游干旱河谷区，可用此式计算泥石流堵河可能性大小，并依此来判断泥石流对主河的堵塞程度，计算数值越大，堵塞程度就越高，一般堵河可能性〖WTBX〗R〖WTBZ〗在10以上为易于堵河，介于5～10可对主河造成较严重的堵塞，小于5则堵河的可能性很小，多产生轻微堵塞。〖

CALCULATION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF RIVER-BLOCKING DUE TO DEBRIS FLOW IN THE UPPER REACHES OF MINJIANG RIVER

There are so much serious disasters caused by the debris flow which blocking the main-river that more and more scholars pay their attention to it.In order to offering the references to controlling of debris flow disasters,such as the assessment of debris flow and the danger degree of debris flow division,the char- acteristic of the blocking main river type of debris flow and estimating the danger degree of a blocking main river type 8 debris flow gullies were studied in the paper.4 blocking main river type of dehris flow gullies, 2 semi-blocking main river type of debris flow gullies and 2 non-blocking main river types of debris flow gullies in the upper reach of Minjiang River were analyzed.Based on the analysis and comparing character- istics of 8 debris flow gully samples,representational fluid characteristics of each debris flow gully and the characteristics of main rivers where debris flow gully converge,and combining with the works of some scholars,the experiential equation of assessing the possibility in debris flow blocking main river was con- cluded.