关于城市公共安全可持续发展理论的初步研究

针对城市公共安全的复杂性与动态性 ,创造性地将可持续发展理论应用到城市公共安全研究中 ,概述城市公共安全可持续发展系统的基本组成 ,结合实际进行系统的结构特征分析 ;运用可靠度理论 ,探讨了系统可持续发展指标的量化及其模型建立 ;以Logistic修正模型为例 ,提出了系统评价预测研究的方法论 ,共同构建城市公共安全可持续发展理论的基本框架。为城市公共安全的进一步研究提供理论依据。

Preliminary Study on Sustainable Development Theory of Urban Community Safety

Referring to the complexity and dynamic in urban community safety, s ustainable development theory is creatively applied to urban community safety st udy. The fundamental components of urban community safety system are briefly sta ted. The structural characters of the system are analyzed in accordance with pra c tices. The reliability theory is applied to probe into the way on how to quantif y the indexes as well as to establish the model. Logistic model is taken as the example to provide the methodology for evaluating and predicting the system. It is on this basis that the rudimental framework of the sustainable development th eory of urban community safety is designed, which provides theoretic criteria fo r further study.