Trends in meteorologically adjusted ozone concentrations in six Kentucky metro areas, 1998-2002

Meteorologically adjusted ozone (O3) concentrations during five recent O3 seasons (1998-2002) were computed for six Kentucky metro areas using a nonlinear regression model originally developed for forecasting ground-level O3 concentrations. The meteorological adjustment procedure was based on modifying actual measured O3 concentrations according to model-predicted responses to climate departures with respect to a reference year. For all six Kentucky metro areas, meteorologically adjusted O3 concentrations declined over the five-year period. The linear best-fit rate of decline in mean adjusted O3 concentrations ranged from 0.9 to 2.6 ppb/yr for these metro areas; the average rate of decline was 1.6 ppb/yr. The rates of decline in meteorologically adjusted extreme value (e.g., 95th percentile) concentrations were approximately the same, but there is greater statistical uncertainty concerning the extreme value trends.