长江中游城市群交通—旅游产业—生态环境的耦合协调评价研究

为探究长江中游城市群交通—旅游产业—生态环境的耦合协调发展，借助VAR模型验证2001～2017年三者的作用关系，并运用耦合协调模型进一步分析其耦合度和协调度的时空变化趋势。结果表明：(1）长江中游城市群交通—旅游产业—生态环境存在长期均衡关系，其中交通与生态环境互为因果关系，旅游产业分别与交通、生态环境呈显著单向因果关系，三者相互促进，但又彼此制约；(2）2001～2017年长江中游城市群交通—旅游产业—生态环境耦合协调发展呈上升趋势，多数地区从拮抗和磨合状态进入耦合状态，并由中、低协调耦合阶段转为极协调耦合阶段，协调度滞后于耦合度；(3）长江中游城市群耦合协调发展存在区域差异，2001～2006年武汉城市圈的表现优于环长株潭城市群和环鄱阳湖城市群，长沙、南昌等少数中心城市耦合协调发展要优于周边地区。

A Study on the Coupling of Traffic-tourism Industry-ecological Environment in the middle of the Yangtze River

Urban agglomeration is the highest spatial organization form when the city develops to maturity. In order to explore the coupling and coordinated development of the traffic-tourism industry-ecological environment in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the role of the three is verified by VAR model. The temporal and spatial variation trends of coupling degree and coordination degree are further analyzed between 2001 and 2017. The results show that: (1) There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the traffic-tourism industry-ecological environment of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Traffic and ecological environment are mutually causal, and the tourism industry has a significant one-way causal relationship with the transportation and ecological environment. The three promote each other, but restrict each other. (2) The coupling and coordinated development of the traffic-tourism industry-ecological environment in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2001 to 2017 shows an upward trend, compared with the temporal and spatial changes of coupling degree and coordination degree of the 31 cities. It is found that most areas go from antagonistic and run-in states to coupling state, and from the middle and low coordination coupling stages to the highly coordinated coupling stage. However, the coordination degree lags behind the coupling degree. (3) There are regional differences in the coordinated development of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. From 2001 to 2017, the performance of Wuhan Metropolitan Area is better than that of the Urban agglomeration around Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan and the Poyang Lake urban agglomeration, and the development of coupling and coordination in a few central cities as Changsha and Nanchang is better than that of the surrounding areas. Finally, it is suggested that government departments should make great efforts to develop comprehensive transportation, achieve the joint prevention and control of ecological environment pollution, promote the integration and optimization of the elements of tourism resources across regions, and promote the healthy development of the relationship between the three.