长江经济带“旅游+”复合系统协同发展的时空演化特征与空间差异研究

以长江经济带为研究区域，运用协同度模型、核密度估计、基尼系数、引力模型等，测算2010~2017年省域旅游产业与科技创新、现代金融、人力资源四维“旅游+”复合系统协同程度，并构建“经济带-流域-省域”多尺度分析框架，解析其空间差异的动态演变特征。结果表明：（1）各产业发展尚不充分，均表现为东北相对优势的空间非均衡特征；其中科技创新均衡化相对滞后于其他三者；（2）协同度整体呈缓慢提升态势，呈现“东北高，西南低”的空间趋势分布，且格局较为稳定；与下游相比，中上游协同度出现“断崖式”下跌，平均存在2~3年“时滞”；（3）长江经济带协同程度的区域差异渐趋缓和，按下中上游划分，差异主要来源于三大流域间的交错程度较高；（4）空间上逐渐形成“以江浙沪为核心，川渝为次核心”的双轮驱动发展网络结构，逐步牵引中上游协同水平提升。

Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Spatial Difference of “Tourism +” System Coordinated Development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Based on the perspectives of industrial synergy and spatial difference, using the synergy model, nuclear density estimation, Gini coefficient and gravitation model to calculate the coordination degree of four-dimensional composite system, composed of tourism industry, technological innovation, modern finance and human resources during 2010 to 2017. Further, the multi-scale analysis framework of “economic belt-basin-provincial” is constructed, to analyze the dynamic evolution characteristics of the spatial differences of the synergy degree. The conclusions are arrived as follows: 1) The development of all industries shows the dynamic time series characteristics of steady improvement over time, but it is still insufficient. And, they all show the spatial non-equilibrium characteristics of the relative advantages of the Northeast. Among them, the equalization of technological innovation behind lags behind the other three, significantly. It portends that technological innovation is the key factor affecting the whole system synergy. 2) The synergy degree of is slowly increasing, showing a spatial trend of “higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest”, which is relatively stable. Compared with the downstream of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the synergy degree of the middle and upper reaches has a “cliff-style” decline, with an average “time lag” of 2 to 3 years. Unbalanced development trend is difficult to eliminate in a short time. 3) The regional differences of the synergy degree are gradually easing in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Divided by the region of hierarchical basin, the difference is mainly due to the high degree of interlacing among the three major river basins, but the contribution rate tends to decline. In contrast, intra-basin and inter-basin differences gradually contribute, and inter-basin differences have a stronger impact on the overall difference than intra-basin differences. Therefore, coordinating the inter-basin differences between the upper and middle basins is still the focus of future work. 4) In terms of provinces, the potential energy value of Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui is nearly three quarters of the total, which is much higher than that of other provinces. In the space, the two-wheel drive development network structure of “Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai as the core and Sichuan and Chongqing as the sub-core” has gradually formed, and the synergy level of the middle and upper reaches has gradually been promoted.