基于ARIMA模型的环渤海典型城市生活垃圾产量预测研究

随着环渤海地区社会经济的快速发展，人口大幅增加，生活垃圾产量逐年递增，其造成的污染对城市发展和环境以及市民生活产生重大影响，准确预测生活垃圾产量对其后续处理与处置至关重要。对2005—2019年环渤海10个典型城市（天津、大连、营口、盘锦、锦州、葫芦岛、滨州、潍坊、东营、烟台）生活垃圾产量现状进行分析，并通过MATLAB软件建立差分自回归移动平均（ARIMA）模型对2020—2024年城市生活垃圾产量进行预测。结果表明：2020—2024年，环渤海10个典型城市生活垃圾产量增长幅度和速度各不相同，但总体来看生活垃圾产量均呈增长趋势，与2005—2019年城市生活垃圾产量呈较为一致的增长趋势；2024年，天津、大连、营口、盘锦、锦州、葫芦岛、滨州、潍坊、东营、烟台10个典型城市生活垃圾产量分别为365.16万、278.65万、62.73万、30.34万、120.05万、49.81万、51.02万、81.41万、88.76万和137.68万t/a。

Prediction of municipal solid waste production of typical cities around Bohai Region based on ARIMA model

With the rapid social and economic development around Bohai Region and the significant increase of population, the municipal solid waste (MSW) production has increased year by year, and the pollution caused by it has a significant impacts on the urban development, the environment and the life citizens' lives. Therefore, an accurate prediction of MSW production is very important for subsequent treatment and disposal. Based on this, the current situation of MSW production in ten typical cities around Bohai Sea from 2005 to 2019 was analyzed, and the ARIMA model was established by MATLAB to predict the MSW production in 2020-2024. The prediction results showed that from 2020 to 2024, the growth range and speed of the MSW production of ten typical large cities around Bohai Region were different, but on the whole, the MSW production exhibited an increasing trend from 2020 to 2024, which was consistent with the growth trend of that from 2005 to 2019. The MSW production in the ten cities, Tianjin, Dalian, Yingkou, Panjin, Jinzhou, Huludao, Binzhou, Weifang, Dongying and Yantai in 2024 would be 3 651 600, 2 786 500, 627 300, 303 400, 1 200 500, 498 100, 510 200, 814 100, 887 600 and 1 376 800 tonnes, respectively.