Anticipating Forest and Range Land Development in Central Oregon (USA) for Landscape Analysis, with an Example Application Involving Mule Deer |
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Authors: | Jeffrey D Kline Alissa Moses Theresa Burcsu |
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Institution: | (1) USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA;(2) USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 620 SW Main Street, Suite 400, Portland, OR 97205, USA |
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Abstract: | Forest policymakers, public lands managers, and scientists in the Pacific Northwest (USA) seek ways to evaluate the landscape-level
effects of policies and management through the multidisciplinary development and application of spatially explicit methods
and models. The Interagency Mapping and Analysis Project (IMAP) is an ongoing effort to generate landscape-wide vegetation
data and models to evaluate the integrated effects of disturbances and management activities on natural resource conditions
in Oregon and Washington (USA). In this initial analysis, we characterized the spatial distribution of forest and range land
development in a four-county pilot study region in central Oregon. The empirical model describes the spatial distribution
of buildings and new building construction as a function of population growth, existing development, topography, land-use
zoning, and other factors. We used the model to create geographic information system maps of likely future development based
on human population projections to inform complementary landscape analyses underway involving vegetation, habitat, and wildfire
interactions. In an example application, we use the model and resulting maps to show the potential impacts of future forest
and range land development on mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) winter range. Results indicate significant development encroachment and habitat loss already in 2000 with development located
along key migration routes and increasing through the projection period to 2040. The example application illustrates a simple
way for policymakers and public lands managers to combine existing data and preliminary model outputs to begin to consider
the potential effects of development on future landscape conditions. |
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