基于库兹涅茨曲线经济增长与环境质量关系研究——以济南市为例

通过分析济南市经济发展与环境污染现状,采用层次分析法,选取了全社会固定资产投资作为经济指标,以工业废水、废气排放量及工业固体废物产生量作为环境指标。运用统计软件SPSS对济南市近几年经济发展与环境污染的关系进行相关分析,发现济南市的经济增长与环境污染之间存在着密切关系。对所得指标进行标准化处理,用SPSS进行曲线分析模拟,做出经济指标与各环境指标的回归模型图。结合环境经济学的库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)对济南市经济发展与环境污染的曲线图进行分析,发现济南市还没达到EKC的稳定阶段,不能走“先污染后治理”的模式,为此需要改变经济发展模式,实施可持续发展,完善环境政策,提高全民环境意识。

Relation between Economy and Environment in Jinan City

The paper chose the total investment in fixed assets of the whole society as the economic indicator and chose the discharge of industrial waste water,the emission of industrial waste gas,the discharge of industrial solid as the economic indicators.The relation between the economy and the environment was consanguineous by analyzing with spss according the recent date of Jinan.First,standardized the dates of the indicators and anatomized them with spss,then drew the curve by the relations of each other.According to the results and the theory of EKC,Jinan did not reached the steady stage,and did not follow the way as the EKC describe "control after polluting".Jinan should change the development pattern,carry the sustainable development into execution and perfect the policy of environment,improve the consciousness of the civilian to make the population,resource and environment in harmony.