气候对河南省小麦产量的影响及其变化研究

河南省位于亚热带与温带的气候过渡带 ,小麦产量对气候变化非常敏感 ,气候对小麦产量影响的南北过渡性很明显。文中用正交多项式的方法分离小麦产量 ;用积分回归的方法分析气候对小麦产量的影响。在此基础上 ,首先根据降水量、温度和日照时数对小麦产量影响的区域分布 ,分别把河南省分为4个降水量影响区、4个温度影响区、5个日照影响区 ;然后 ,采用滑动积分回归的方法 ,分别分析了亚热带和温带3个影响因子对小麦产量影响的变化 ;最后 ,讨论了未来气候变化的可能影响。

Impacts of climate on wheat yield and their changes in Henan Province

The climatic impacts on wheat yield and their transitivity are very obvious in Henan Province which is crossed by the transitional zone between the subtropical and temperate zone.This paper extracts the weather yield data from yield time series using the orthogonal polynomial method and analyses the impacts of climatic change on wheat yields by the integral regression method.On the basis of the above work,according to the regional distribution of the total affecting coefficients and their ranges of precipitation,temperature and sunshine duration,firstly it divides Henan Province into 4 affecting regions of precipitation,4 affecting regions of temperature and 5 affecting regions of sunshine duration respectively; secondly,using the method of running integral regression,it analyses the changes of climatic impacts on the wheat yields in the subtropical and temperate zones respectively; and finally,it discusses the possible impacts of the future climate changes on the wheat yields and adaptability.