抚顺城区大气悬浮颗粒物污染与呼吸系统疾病死亡率相关性的定量分析

为了定量分析大气总悬浮颗粒物(TSP)对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡率的影响,采用单因素泊松(Poisson)回归分析法,研究了辽宁省抚顺市城区TSP浓度变化与市区1999～2003年呼吸系统疾病死亡率的相关关系.结果发现,在消除了时间、气象等因素影响后,滞后4日TSP浓度每增加50μg·m-3,呼吸系统疾病总人群组死亡率相对危险度(OR)增加1.02195(95%CI=1.00195～1.04245),即滞后4日TSP浓度变化造成总人群组呼吸系统疾病死亡率明显增加的超额死亡率为2.195%.抚顺城区大气TSP污染可能是市区居民呼吸系统疾病死亡率增加的原因之一.

Quantitative Analysis of the Relationship between Total Suspended Particles (TSP) and Respiratory Diseases Mortality of Urban Residents in Fushun, China

For quantitative analyzing the effects of total suspended particles(TSP)exposure on respiratory diseases mortality of urban residents in Fushun, a northeast city of China, the data of respiratory diseases mortality and TSP monitoring from 1999 to 2003 in Fushun were collected. The relationship between TSP concentrations and the respiratory diseases mortality was analyzed using Poisson regression model adjusted for seasons, long-term patterns and meteorological variations using an ecological parametric method. It was found that each 50μg·m-3 increment of 4-days lag’s TSP was associated with an OR of 1.02195(95%CI=1.00195~1.04245)of respiratory diseases mortality in the general group, and TSP concentration increases per 50μg·m-3 each time associated with the excess mortality increase of 2.195%. The results showed that there was a significant relationship between 4-days lag's TSP concentrations and the respiratory diseases mortality in Fushun. It was considered that TSP might be one of the risk factors related to the increase of respiration diseases mortality in Fushun.