| 农业病虫害的灾变预测及预报精度分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵惠燕,汪世泽.农业病虫害的灾变预测及预报精度分析[J].灾害学,1993,8(4):10-14. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵惠燕 汪世泽 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北农业大学植保系，西北农业大学植保系 陕西杨陵 712100，陕西杨陵 712100 |
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| 基金项目： | 武功农科中心开发基金，西北农业大学青年科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 在农业病虫害突变规律的研究基础上,建立了定性与定量的尖角突变模型,确定了各病虫的突变区域。根据综合控制变量所确定的边界值,对未来病虫发生发展趋势进行预测。经多年历史资料检验和1992年农业病虫害发生突变的趋势预报证明:准确率高,覆盖面广。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业病虫害 突变理论 突变区域 突变预测 传统预测 |
CATASTROPHE FORECAST OF PEST IN AGRICULTURE AND ANALYSIS ON ITS EXACTNESS |
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| Zhao Huiyan Wang Shize.CATASTROPHE FORECAST OF PEST IN AGRICULTURE AND ANALYSIS ON ITS EXACTNESS[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1993,8(4):10-14. |
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| Authors: | Zhao Huiyan Wang Shize |
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| Institution: | Northwestern Agricultural University |
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| Abstract: | According to the catastrophe rule of pest in agriculture the qualitative and quantitative catastrophe model was set up and the sudden change region was determined.The tendency of pest in agriculture was forecasted. The examinations of many years have showed that the catastrophe forecast method has a higher exactness and an extensive application. |
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| Keywords: | Pest in agriculture Catastrophe theory Sudden change region Catastrophe forecast Classical forecast |
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