基于SLEUTH模型的无锡市区土地利用变化情景模拟

以城市化快速发展和生态环境压力突出的无锡市区为研究区，综合集成地形图、交通图以及1980、1995和2000年TM/ETM土地利用遥感解译资料，应用SLEUTH元胞自动机模型对土地利用变化过程进行情景模拟，揭示不同土地保护强度下的土地利用变化趋势。研究结果：SLEUTH模型首先对过去土地利用变化实现了动态模拟，模拟精度较高；在模拟形成的未来土地利用变化情景中，情景Ⅰ是基于维持现状土地利用保护强度基本不变的假设，城镇用地将迅速扩张，并占用大量水田和旱地，城镇扩张形态以边缘增长为主；情景Ⅱ则将水田保护强度提高50%，旱地提高12%，林草地提高50%，则城镇用地迅速扩张及耕地大量被占用的趋势得到有效控制；研究也进一步证明了SLEUTH模型在我国快速城市化背景下土地利用变化模拟和预测中的适用性。

USING SLUETH MODEL TO SIMULATE LAND USE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN WUXI DISTRICT

In the process of rapid urbanization,land use patterns are going through changes and have significant impacts on the system of earth surface.Therefore,it is very important to study land use change processes and possible tendencies.This paper selected Wuxi district as the study area,which has rapid urbanization and prominent eco-environmental pressure.Historical land use scenarios for 1980,1995 and 2000 were analyzed to track land use change by TM/ETM image explanation and spatial analysis of Arcgis software.And relief image,transportation images,urban extent images were also integrated.The SLEUTH model,a cell-based tempo-spatial process model,was applied to interpret historical land use change patterns and simulate future change scenarios.Then land use change trends under different land protection situations were revealed according to these scenarios.The result showed that the precision of historical land use change simulation was high.Based on the coefficient calibration result and grayscales of land pattern in excluded layer,two land use change scenarios were simulated.The "scenario I" assumes that land use patterns will follow the trend of historical land use change,in which urban space will rapidly grow with huge encroachment of arable land.However the "scenario II" enhances paddy field protection intensity by 50 percent,dry field by 12 percent,forest and grass by 50 percent.The result shows that the rapid growth trend of urban space is restricted well and arable land is protected.The study also testifies the applicability of SLEUTH model in analyzing land use tempo-spatial process in rapid urbanization region of China.