新疆农用拖拉机排放清单及特征研究

分别应用参数本土化的NON-ROAD模型和生态环境部发布的《非道路移动源大气污染物排放清单编制技术指南》估算了新疆1993—2018年农业生产用拖拉机PM₁₀、PM_2.5、HC、NO_x和CO等污染物排放清单.同时,结合NON-ROAD模型特性、排放清单和区域现状,从定量和定性2个维度剖析了2种排放清单编制方法的适应性和污染物排放演变态势.最后,基于3种不同方法对污染物排放的潜在影响因素进行分析.结果表明：①基于参数本土化的NON-ROAD模型在建立特定区域排放清单方面具有一定参考价值.②1993—2018年新疆农用拖拉机污染物排放呈现出平稳上升、波动、快速增长、平稳、下降等不同态势,总体上,1993—2017年污染物排放增加25156.69 t,但在2018年出现较大幅度下降,同时单位功率排放也明显下降,表明近年来采取的强有力排放控制措施在抑制大气污染物排放方面的成效明显.③2006年之后大中型拖拉机年均排放总量占比为70.9%,小型拖拉机年均排放占比为29.1%,短期内随着时间的推移两者的差距将越来越大,揭示大中型拖拉机是污染物排放控制的关键.④对污染物排放影响因素的定量分析结果发现,农业经济发展水平对区域污染物排放总量变化起决定性作用.本研究在建立污染物排放清单、污染物排放影响因素定量分析及区域污染物排放治理政策制定方面有一定参考价值.

Research on the emission inventory and characteristics of agricultural tractors in Xinjiang

The emission inventories of PM₁₀, PM_2.5, HC, NO_x and CO for agricultural tractors in Xinjiang from 1993 to 2018 were estimated based on the parameter localized NON-ROAD model and the "technical guide for compiling emission inventories of air pollutants from NON-ROAD mobile sources" released by the Ministry of Ecological Environment. Combined with the characteristics of NON-ROAD model and emission inventory, the adaptability of the two emission inventory methods and the evolution trend of pollutant emission were performed quantitatively and qualitatively, the potential impact factors of pollutant emission were analyzed with generalized regression neural network and mean impact value model, Grey Relation Analysis and spearman correlation coefficient. The results showed that, firstly, the NON-ROAD model based on parameter localization has a certain reference value in the establishment of specific regional emission inventory. Secondly, the trend of pollutant emission showed different trends, such as steady rise, fluctuation, rapid growth, steady and decline from 1993 to 2017 in Xinjiang. In general, the pollutant emission increased by 25156.69 t from 1993 to 2017, but there was a large-scale decline in 2018. At the same time, the unit power emission also decreased significantly, indicating that the strong emission control measures taken in recent years have achieved remarkable results in restraining the emission of air pollutants. Thirdly, after 2006, the emission from large and medium tractors accounted for 70.9% of total emissions, and small tractors was 29.1%, with the passage of time, the gap between the pollutant emission of large and small tractors will become larger in the short term; the results were revealed that large and medium tractors were the key to pollutant emission control. Finally, the quantitative analysis of the impact factors of pollutant emission showed that, the level of agricultural economic development plays a decisive role in the change of regional total pollutant emission. This study has a certain reference value in the establishment of pollutant emission inventory, quantitative analysis for impact factor of pollutant emission and formulation of regional pollutant emission control policies.