Assessment of vulnerability of the eastern Cretan beaches (Greece) to sea level rise

Beaches are both sensitive and critical components of the coastal systems, as they are particularly vulnerable to environmental change (e.g., the sea level rise) and form valuable coastal ecosystems and economic resources. The objective of the present study has been to record the spatial characteristics and other attributes (e.g., topography, sediments and accessibility) of the 71 beaches of the E. Crete (Eastern Mediterranean) that are either already developed or have a reasonable development potential and assess their erosion risk under sea level rise. Beach retreats are predicted by ensembles of six cross-shore (1D) analytical and numerical morphodynamic models, set up/forced on the basis of collected/collated information and three sea level rise scenarios (0.26, 0.82 and 1.86 m); these retreats are then compared with the recorded maximum (dry) beach widths. Projections by the unified ensemble suggest that, in the case of a 0.26 m rise, 80 % of the examined beaches are to retreat by more than 20 and 16 % by more than 50 % of their maximum dry width. In the case of a 0.82 m rise, 72 % of the tested beaches are predicted to retreat by more than 50 % of their dry width and 21 % by a distance at least equal to their observed maximum dry widths. A sea level rise of 1.86 m represents a ‘doom’ scenario, as 75 % of the beaches are predicted to retreat by more than their maximum width. These results may be conservative, as other significant beach erosion factors (e.g., decreasing beach sediment supply) have not been considered.