贫困的“物以类聚”：中国的农村空间贫困陷阱及其识别

理解贫困陷阱及其成因是理解减贫机制,进而理解贫困治理的基础。早期的实证研究注重从收入的角度研究农村贫困,较新的研究开始关注“空间外部性”对农村贫困的影响。然而,要正确识别农村的“贫困陷阱”,就需要对上述两个维度同时进行解释。鉴于此,运用中国县级层面的面板数据,从聚集与持久两个维度对中国的农村贫困陷阱进行了识别。研究结果表明：2006—2016年,中国农村的贫困空间格局几乎没有变化,并且贫困的空间分布与经济增长也并非是同步的,贫困县的分布主要与地形（坡度、海拔）因素有关;进一步研究还发现,中国的农村贫困具有持久性,贫困县收入存在低水平的均衡,贫困县与非贫困县之间存在收入的“俱乐部收敛”。本文揭示了空间外部性与农村贫困之间的关系,为正确评估经济发展与扶贫开发,合理制定区域反贫困瞄准机制提供了支持。

"Birds of a feather flock together":China's rural spatial poverty trap and its identification

Examining the poverty trap and its causes is the basis for understanding the mechanism of poverty reduction and governance. Current research no longer confines rural poverty to "insufficient capital formation", but emphasizes the importance of spatial factors. Based on the panel data at the county level, this paper identifies the rural poverty trap in China from two dimensions of aggregation and persistence. This study shows that the spatial pattern of poverty in rural China remained almost unchanged during 2006-2016, and the spatial distribution of poverty is not synchronized with economic growth. The distribution of poverty-stricken counties is mainly related to terrain conditions (slope, elevation). Further research also finds that rural poverty in China is persistent. There is a low level equilibrium of income in poverty-stricken counties, and there is a "club convergence" between poverty-stricken and non-poverty-stricken counties. This study reveals the relationship between spatial externalities and rural poverty, which provides support for the correct assessment of economic development and poverty alleviation, and the rational formulation of regional anti-poverty targeting mechanism.