鲁南经济带城乡绿色发展效率时空分异及驱动因素识别

城乡绿色发展效率对高效低耗绿色发展模式构建、社会经济可持续发展以及实现城乡互动融合具有重要意义。基于鲁南经济带35个县（市、区）13 a面板数据,综合采用DEA-Malmquist指数法、城乡绿色发展效率脱钩状态模型、地理探测器等多种计量模型,对2005—2017年鲁南经济带城乡绿色发展效率时空分异特征与驱动因素进行综合研究,结果表明：（1）技术进步是鲁南经济带绿色TFP增长的主要来源,但其贡献度不断下降,而纯技术效率与规模效率对于绿色TFP增长的促进作用逐年增强;（2）研究期内鲁南经济带绿色TFP增长具有空间分异性,绿色TFP的高效率区和次高效率区有向东北和西南地区集中的趋势;（3）鲁南经济带城乡绿色发展效率的脱钩关系出现反复,由负脱钩（耦合）到脱钩再到负脱钩,整体上城乡绿色发展处于动态变化与非协调（或低级耦合）阶段;（4）普通中学在校学生数、粮食产量、城乡居民储蓄存款余额是城乡绿色发展效率的高作用力影响指标,因子交互作用后对城乡绿色发展效率解释力远超单因子,反映出鲁南经济带城乡绿色发展效率的驱动因素具有复杂性特征。

Spatio-temporal pattern and driving factors of urban-rural green development efficiency in Lunan Economic Belt

Urban-rural green development efficiency is of great significance to the construction of efficient and low consumption green development model, the sustainable development of social economy and the realization of urban-rural integration. Based on 13-year panel data of 35 counties in Lunan Economic Belt (also known as Southern Shandong Economic Belt), the article estimated the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and driving factors of urban-rural green development efficiency in the study area by using DEA-Malmquist index method, decoupling state model of urban-rural green development efficiency, geographic detector and other econometric models. Research shows that: (1) Technological progress is the main source of green TFP growth, but its contribution is declining, while the pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency to green TFP growth is increasing year by year. (2) The growth of green TFP has spatial differentiation, and the high and sub-high efficiency areas of green TFP are different during the research period. The growth tends to concentrate in the northeast and southwest of Shandong province. (3) The decoupling relationship between urban and rural green development efficiency in the study area appears repeatedly, from negative decoupling (coupling) to decoupling and then to negative decoupling. On the whole, the green development of urban and rural areas is in the stage of dynamic change and non-coordination (or low-level coupling). (4) The number of students in ordinary middle schools, grain production and savings deposit balance of urban-rural residents are the driving indexes of urban-rural green development efficiency. The explanatory power of factor interaction on the urban and rural green development efficiency is far greater than that of single factor, reflecting the complexity of the driving factors of urban-rural green development efficiency in the Lunan Economic Belt.