中国原油进口来源国供应安全的定量评估

原油供给安全在中国国家安全中占有重要地位,对其定量评估可为防范风险提供政策参考。采用事件数据分析法定量测度中国与21个主要原油进口来源国之间的双边关系,结果表明：中国与大多数原油贸易伙伴的关系处于中低水平,但近十多年总体保持上升趋势,原油进口存在一定的政治关系风险但趋于下降。选用资源、政治、经济、运输、军事5个方面的11个指标,通过组合赋权法确定指标权重,运用集对分析方法评估中国21个原油进口来源国的供应安全度,并识别主要障碍因子。结果表明：21国供应安全度存在较大差异。部分中东国家、俄罗斯、委内瑞拉、哈萨克斯坦供应安全度较高,多数非洲国家和亚太国家供应安全度较低。供应国的原油资源状况、运输风险、政治风险是制约多数国家供应安全的主要障碍因素。为防范风险,中国需坚持开展多边“能源外交”,扩大战略石油储备等多方面施策方针。

Quantitative evaluation on supply security of the sources of crude oil imports for China

The security of crude oil supply plays an important role in China's national security, so quantitative assessment for it can provide some policy references for risk prevention. The event data analysis model was employed to quantitatively measure the bilateral relations between China and 21 major crude oil suppliers. The results show that the relations between China and most of its crude oil trading partners are at medium and low levels, but the overall trend has been rising in recent more than ten years, which indicates that crude oil import has a certain risk of political relations but tends to decline. Eleven indexes from five aspects of resources, politics, economy, transportation and military were selected, and the weights of the indexes were determined by combination weighting method. The set pair analysis model was used to evaluate the supply security degree of 21 source countries of China's crude oil import and then the main obstacle factors were identified. The results show that there are significant differences in the supply security degrees of the 21 countries. Some of the Middle East countries, Russia, Venezuela and Kazakhstan have a high degree of supply security, while most African and Asia-Pacific countries have a low degree of supply security. Crude oil resource status, transportation risks and political risks of the suppliers are the main obstacles to the supply security of most suppliers. To prevent risks, China should take policy measures such as pursuing multilateral energy diplomacy and expanding strategic petroleum reserves.