基于三级分层框架的农业气象灾害多风险评估

农业气象灾害多风险评估对于防灾减灾、制定风险对策具有重要意义。根据1980—2015年陕西省农业气象灾害年度统计资料和2015—2018年农户调研数据,运用贝叶斯网络、贝叶斯分层模型（BHM）等多风险评估方法,分析陕西省农业气象灾害的变化趋势、灾害间相互作用以及生计资本对于不同作物脆弱性的影响。结果表明：（1）1980—2015年陕西省洪涝的灾害率和灾害强度显著下降,斜率分别为0.17%、0.7%,冷冻的灾害率显著上升,斜率为0.25%,干旱和风雹灾害无明显变化;（2）干旱和洪涝显著影响其他灾害,各种灾害之间存在复杂的相互作用;（3）增加有效灌溉面积率、农作物种植面积、农村用电量和农用磷肥施用折纯量等生计资本指标,可以显著降低脆弱性。本文有助于提高农户对农业气象灾害的适应能力,为预防和治理农业气象灾害提供决策参考。

Multi-risk assessment of agrometeorological disasters based on a three-level hierarchical framework

The multi-risk assessment of agrometeorological disasters is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation and the development of risk countermeasures. According to the annual statistics of agrometeorological disasters in Shaanxi province from 1980 to 2015 and the survey data of farmers in 2015-2018, we use multi-risk assessment methods such as Bayesian network and Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM), analyze the change trend of agrometeorological disasters in the province, as well as the interactions between disasters and the impact of livelihood capital on the vulnerability of different crops. The results show that: (1) The rate and intensity of flood disasters in Shaanxi Province from 1980 to 2015 dropped significantly, with slopes of 0.17% and 0.7%, respectively, and the disaster rate of frosts increased significantly, with a slope of 0.25%, while there was no significant change in drought and hail disasters. (2) Droughts and floods significantly aggravated other disasters, and there were complex interactions between various disasters. (3) When we reduced vulnerability by increasing livelihood capital, these livelihood capital indicators, such as the ratio of effective irrigated area, crop planting area, rural electricity consumption and agricultural phosphate fertilizer application, should be selected. The study will improve the adaptability of farmers to agrometeorological disasters and provide guidance for the prevention and mitigation of agrometeorological disasters.