“熟人社会”农村与“原子化”农村中的生猪养殖废弃物能源化利用——博弈、仿真与现实检验

以生猪粪便制沼气为例,应用博弈论和仿真方法,探究了“熟人社会”农村和“原子化”农村中养猪户的行为演化规律和稳定策略。进而以规模养猪户微观数据为基础,应用计量经济学研究方法,对博弈和仿真结果进行了检验。研究表明：“地方性共识”引致的隐性激励是维系“熟人社会”农村生猪养殖废弃物能源化利用集体行动的重要机制。而在“原子化”农村中,由于人情机制与礼俗机制的衰弱,“地方性共识”近乎消失殆尽,养猪户倾向于成为严格的机会主义者,从而导致生猪养殖废弃物能源化利用集体行动举步维艰。据此,在强化法律法规、政策方针等正式制度建设的同时,还应推动“地方性共识”建设,以乡村文化振兴助推乡村生态振兴。

Energy utilization of pig breeding waste at the acquaintance society and atomized society in rural areas: Game analysis,simulation analysis and reality testing

On the background of the acquaintance society and atomized society in rural areas, this paper employed game theory and simulation to analyze the contradiction between individual rationality and collective rationality among pig farmers in the process of energy utilization of pig breeding waste. By considering the "local consensus" to change the constraints of the traditional evolutionary game, this paper presented a theoretical and logical framework for understanding the cooperative participation of large-scale pig farmers' behaviors. On this basis, with the survey data of large-scale pig farmers in Hubei province, this paper employed econometric research methods to empirically verify the differences of pig farmers' participation in biogas production from pig manure at the acquaintance society and atomized society and to analyze the role of local consensus in pig farmers' activities of biogas production. Results from the theoretical analysis, game and simulation analysis as well as empirical analysis all show that there are differences in pig farmers' behaviors in energy utilization of pig breeding waste at both acquaintance society and atomized society in rural areas. At the acquaintance society, the social reputation reward, status reward, social reputation punishment and status punishment brought by "local consensus" are not only alternatives of "social currency" compensation but also informal restraints to avoid opportunistic behaviors. And they are not only economic material incentives, laws and regulations, but also the internal mechanisms to maintain collective action in rural areas, which play an important role in the governance and protection of rural ecological environment. At the atomized society, due to the decline of human relations and etiquette mechanisms, the "local consensus" has almost disappeared. After a long period of comparison, learning and imitation, rational and self-interested pig farmers tend to become strict opportunists. Consequently, the reciprocal collective action of energy utilization of pig breeding waste is difficult. Therefore, this paper suggests that, with strengthening the formal system construction of laws, regulations, policies and guidelines, we should promote the construction of "local consensus" and improve the rural ecological environment governance system which integrates autonomy, law and morality.