江西省“三线冲突”空间特征及其强度影响因素

科学划定“三线”（城镇开发边界、永久基本农田、生态保护红线）有利于合理安排国土空间资源,识别“三线冲突”强度影响因素,可加深对国土空间规划的认识。以省级空间规划试点区——江西省为例,通过“三线冲突强度指数”识别不同区域“三线冲突”差异,利用空间自相关分析探究空间特征,并应用地理加权回归模型分析不同冲突类型的影响因素。结果表明：研究区内,城镇—生态、城镇—农业、生态—农业、城镇—生态—农业冲突面积分别为4305.791 km²、2892.894 km²、1845.341 km²、159.444 km²,各类型冲突存在明显的空间聚集性;固定资产投资强度、建设用地适宜区面积占比和地形位指数分别为城镇—生态、城镇—农业和生态—农业冲突强度的主要影响因素,城镇化率和距河流距离对城镇—生态—农业冲突强度具有影响作用。研究结果可为今后合理布局“三线”、实现国土空间结构优化提供参考依据。

Study on the spatial characteristics and intensity factors of "three-line conflict" in Jiangxi province

Delimiting three lines (permanent basic farmland protection zones, urban growth boundaries and ecological protection redlines) scientifically is conducive to rational arrangement of land space resources and identifying the "three-line conflict" intensity factors can deepen the understanding of the national space planning. This study took the provincial spatial planning pilot area-Jiangxi province as an example, recognized the regional difference of "three-line conflict" by defining the "three-line conflict intensity", revealed its spatial characteristics by using spatial autocorrelation analysis, and analyzed the influencing factors of different types of conflict intensity by applying geographically weighted regression model (GWR). The results showed that the conflict areas of town-ecology, town-agriculture, ecology-agriculture and town-ecology-agriculture were 4305.791 km², 2892.894 km², 1845.341 km² and 159.444 km², respectively. There is obvious spatial clustering in the conflicts of town-ecology, town-agriculture, ecology-agriculture and town-ecology-agriculture. The main influencing factor of town-ecology conflict is the intensity of fixed assets investment, and the leading factor of town-agriculture conflict is the proportion of suitable area of construction land. The ecology-agriculture conflict is most affected by the topographic index, and the town-ecology-agriculture conflict is mainly affected by urbanization rate and the distance from river. The research results can provide reference for the rational layout of the "three lines" and the optimization of land structure.