城乡融合背景下淮海经济区乡村发展潜力——以苏北地区为例

乡村可持续发展与建设是乡村振兴的目标与愿景,也是推进城乡发展一体化、构建可持续城乡融合系统的落脚点,在城市化进程不断加剧背景下,明确乡村发展阶段与状态、测度发展潜力对有效识别乡村未来发展方向和模式、实现乡村可持续发展与建设具有重要意义。以地处淮海经济区核心区的苏北地区为研究对象,以7980个行政村为评价单元研究村域单元的乡村发展状态,通过县域尺度上对城乡发展阶段进行约束,以“差异化+一致性”的思路进行乡村发展潜力的综合测度。研究结果如下：（1）研究区乡村可分为“城镇主导”“城乡联动”和“乡村主导”三类发展阶段,数量占比分别为15.38%、46.15%和38.46%;（2）研究区乡村发展状态指数最大值和平均值分别为6.209和1.714,具有高值区、低值区集聚的特征;（3）研究区乡村发展潜力最大值和平均值分别为2.827和0.923,发展潜力为低、较低、中等、较高和高的评价单元占比分别为4.45%、15.20%、23.22%、35.39%和21.74%;（4）依据乡村发展潜力可将研究区分为“重点挖潜区”“权衡挖潜区”“适度挖潜区”及“重要维护区”四类,建议分别采用“激发隐性活力,缩小区内差距”“以优势要素带动,实现区域权衡发展”“明确发展劣势条件,适度填补潜力空间”及“保持发展模式,实现稳定发展”的发展思路。

Research of rural system development potential in Huaihai Economic Zone: A case study of Northern Jiangsu province under the background of urban-rural integration

Sustainable development and construction are the goal and vision of rural revitalization, the focus of promoting the integration of urban-rural development and building a sustainable urban-rural integration system. Under the background of the increasing urbanization process, it is necessary to define the stage and state of rural development, measure the development potential, and effectively identify the future development direction and mode of rural areas, and achieve the goal of rural sustainable development and construction. This paper chooses the Northern Jiangsu province as the research object, and 7980 administrative villages located in Huaihai Economic Zone as the evaluation units to study the rural development status of the village area units. Through the county scale constraints on the urban and rural development stage, the comprehensive measurement of the rural development potential is carried out with the idea of "differentiation and consistency". The results show that: (1) The rural areas in the study area can be divided into three development stages: urban leading, urban-rural linkage and rural leading, with the proportion of 15.38%, 46.15% and 38.46%, respectively. (2) The maximum and average values of the rural development status index in the study area are 6.209 and 1.714, characterized by high value area and low value area agglomeration, respectively. (3) The maximum and average values of rural development potential in the study area are 2.827 and 0.923, respectively, and the proportions of evaluation units are 4.45%, 15.20%, 23.22%, 35.39% and 21.74% with the potential grades from low to high. (4) According to the rural development potential, this study area can be divided into four categories: "key potential area", "balanced potential area", "moderate potential area" and "important maintenance area". This paper puts forward the development ideas of "Narrow the gap within the region by stimulating recessive vitality", "Achieve regional balanced development driven by advantage elements", "Find out disadvantage conditions and fill the potential space moderately" and "Maintain the present mode to achieve stable development".