1368-1948年山西霜雪灾害的特征与周期规律研究

通过对山西1368-1948年历史文献资料的搜集、整理和数学分析,对该区霜雪灾害等级、阶段、周期及其成因进行了研究。在这期间,山西共发生霜雪灾害419次,轻度106次、中度228次、重度85次。灾害变化可分为4个阶段,1368-1579年为第1阶段,1580-1699年为第2阶段,1700-1819年为第3阶段,1820-1948年为第4阶段。第1、3阶段距平值主要为负值,灾害频次较低,以轻、中度灾害为主。第2、4阶段距平值主要为正值,灾害频次较高,以中度和重度霜雪灾为主。小波分析表明,灾害存在着4个明显的周期,即10～13年、20年左右、45～50年和120年左右的周期。降雪或寒流引起的气温骤降至0℃以下是造成山西霜雪灾害的主要原因。共发生6次寒冷气候事件,分别出现在1578-1588、1591-1607、1631-1642、1669-1672、1690-1699和1830-1836年。出现3次异常寒冷灾害年,分别是1653、1892和1929年。

Characteristics and Periodic Regularity of Frost and Snow Disaster in Shanxi Province During 1368 to 1948

Based on collection,arrangement and mathematical analysis on historical documents and materials from 1368 to 1948 in Shanxi province,grades,stages,periods and their causes of frost and snow disasters in the area are researched.During this period 419 disasters had happened,the disaster grades are mild,moderate and severe,and the disaster occurrence probabilities are 106,228 and 85 times.Disaster changes can be divided into four stages.The first stage is from 1368 to 1579,the second stage is from 1580 to 1699,the third stage is from 1700 to 1819 and the fourth stage is from 1820 to 1948.The first and third stages are the ones that the disasters happened occasionally,and most of them are mild and moderate ones.The second and forth stages are the ones that the disasters happened frequently,and most of them are moderate and the most serious.According to wavelet analysis,the disasters are mainly of 4 obvious periods as 10～13 years,about 20 years,45～50 years and about 120 years.Sharp temperature dropping below 0 ℃,which is caused by snowfall or cold current,is the main inducement of frost and snow disaster in Shanxi province.Six cold climate events happened in Shanxi province from 1368 to 1948,and they respectively happened from 1578 to 1588,1591 to 1607,1631 to 1642,1669 to 1672,1690 to 1699 and 1830 to 1836.There were three unusually cold disaster years in 1653,1892 and 1929.