基于链式理论的单灾种向多灾种演绎

从灾变链角度出发,以灾变链式理论的八种链式形态为依托,基于耗散结构理论,指出自然灾害系统链式响应行为是外部环境复杂输入和自身内部结构关系变化两方面共同作用的结果；构建系统的单灾种模型,并推演出多灾种模型,反映各灾种之间的耦合关系和相互影响,探讨单灾种向多灾种的演化机理.研究表明各灾变链致灾因子所具有的能量是灾变链式阶段的关键,在此基础上提出防灾减灾策略,为单灾种和多灾种灾害的防治提供参考依据.

Chain Theory Based Evolution from Single Disaster to Multi-disasters

From the perspective of disaster chain,based on the eight chain forms of chain theory of disaster and dissipative structure theory,it is pointed out that chain response behavior of natural disasters system is the result of the joint effect of complex input of the external environments and its internal structure changes.A single disaster model is developed and a multi-disaster model is deducted,which can be used to reflect the coupling relation and interaction of different types of disasters and explore the mechanism of evolution of single disaster to multi-disasters.The study shows that the energy of disaster-causing factors of different disaster chains is the key of chain-styled stage.Accordingly,the strategies of disaster prevention and mitigation are put forward as references for control of single and multi disasters.