Modeling Land-Use Change in a Decision-Support System for Coastal-Zone Management |
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Authors: | Jean-Luc de Kok Guy Engelen Roger White Herman G Wind |
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Institution: | (1) Civil Engineering and Management, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands;(2) Research Institute for Knowledge Systems bv, P.O. Box 463, 6200 AL Maastricht, The Netherlands;(3) Department of Geography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, Canada |
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Abstract: | RaMCo is a prototype version of a decision-support system for coastal-zone management. The model is based on the findings of a multidisiciplinary research program, conducted in Southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Different management strategies can be compared on the basis of the short- and long-term consequences. Land-use change has been included in RaMCo in view of the impacts of land-based human activities on the marine environment. The key aspect of the model is a combination of the temporal dynamics of land-use change on the regional (macro-level) scale and spatial dynamics on the local (micro-level) scale. Constrained cellular automata are used to integrate both scale levels. The state changes of the cells depend on the consistency with the macro-scale model, local geographical conditions, and interaction with neighboring cells. In this paper, we discuss the underlying theoretical assumptions of the macro-scale and micro-scale models, some characteristic results for land-use change in the study area, and the validation problem. |
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Keywords: | cellular automata coastal-zone management decision-support system land-use change rapid assessment Southwest Sulawesi |
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