系统动力学应用于中国区域绿色发展政策仿真的方法学综述

绿色发展是我国"十三五"时期五大发展理念之一,是解决我国发展与保护矛盾的根本途径。系统动力学是模拟宏观社会经济发展趋势和政策效力的常用分析工具,本文对系统动力学在中国区域绿色发展政策仿真中的应用进行了梳理。研究显示:系统动力学应用的区域范围方面,该方法全面应用于从国家直至县域等各个尺度的区域绿色发展研究,区域绿色发展通常被分解为经济、社会、资源、环境等子系统;应用的主要领域方面,水土资源、能源、水环境、固废治理、绿色产业等领域应用较多,大气环境、绿色消费等领域应用相对较少;方法的改进和完善方面,软系统分析法、各类优化方法和地理信息系统与系统动力学的集成应用日益普遍。文末根据文献梳理情况,提出未来应在决策变量设计、历史数据挖掘、环境系统对经济系统的反馈等方面进行方法改进。

Research Progress of Application of System Dynamics in Regional Green Development Policy Simulation in China

Green development is one of the five development ideas of China in the 13th Five-Year period, and also the way to solve the contradiction between development and environmental protection. System dynamics is the tool to simulate the trends of macro socio-economic development and policy effectiveness. This paper reviews the application of system dynamics for regional green development policy simulation in China. Results show that: the method is used in green development research at all geographical levels from country to county or other areas, and the system of regional green development is often divided into some subsystems, such as economy, society, resources and environment subsystems. The application are mainly focus on the fields of soil resource, water resource, energy, water environment, solid waste management and green industry, and relatively few on atmosphere environment, green consumption and so on. In terms of improvement of the method, the integration of soft system analysis, various optimization methods, GIS and system dynamics are becoming hot issue. Based on the literature review, this study proposes that the emphasis of the method improvement in the future should be the design of decision-making variables, mining of historical data, and the feedback from environmental system to economic system.