天津市滨海新区城市形态演化模拟及驱动力分析

基于TM遥感影像、城市规划图等数据，利用logistic CA模型，模拟了2005~2010年天津市滨海新区城市形态演化，经过模拟面积和Lee Sallle指数两个指标的精度评价后，定量分析了新版总规实施后城市形态演化的驱动力。实证研究表明：滨海新区城市形态扩展迅速，驱动力大小依次是自然环境、经济发展、交通带动、城市规划引导；其中交通驱动力中，影响最强烈的依次是火车站、城市的道路、高速出入口、县乡道、航道、省道。因此提出：城市规划必须顺应城市形态发展的规律，把握好可控的关键驱动力，科学预测城市形态发展和提出城市规划方案，做到积极有效的引导城市形态发展

ANALYSIS OF SIMULATION OF URBAN FORM EVOLUTION AND DRIVING FORCES IN TIANJIN BINHAI NEW AREA

This paper aims to create the model of the urban form evolution of Tianjin Binhai New Area from 2005 to 2010，by using the logistic CA model and basing on TM satellite remote sensing images,urban plans and other data.After intensively accurate evaluation of simulation of the area and Lee Sallle index,the paper has done quantitative analysis of driving forces in evolution of urban form after the implementation of the new overall plan. The demonstration result shows some key points as follows:firstly,the expansion of urban form of Binhai New Area is rapid,driven by natural environment,economic development,traffic and guidance of urban plan;secondly,the areas in which transport has played a significant role are train station,road of city,highway access,road of county and township,waterway and provincial road.Based on above findings,we propose that in order to provide the development of urban form with more active and effective guidance,the urban plan should follow the law of development of urban form,have a mastery of key factors,predict and make the plan of development of urban form in a scientific way