PRED系统可持续发展五要素典型组合模式

人口规模的大小、自然资源禀赋的好坏、地理环境条件的优劣、经济社会制度的先进程度和科技水平的高低是影响一个国家或地区PRED系统可持续发展演变进程的5个主要因素。本文以一些典型国家为例，对这5种要素的典型组合模式及其影响力大小和重要性程度进行了研究。人口规模过大或者过小可能促进或阻碍一个国家或者地区的经济发展，自然资源的丰缺、地理环境条件的优劣在很大程度上也会增加或者降低经济可持续发展的难度，但人口、资源、环境这三个因素都不是影响经济社会可持续发展第一位的、决定性的因素，只有制度才是最终制约PRED系统可持续发展的最关键因素。制度不完善，则技术再先进也不可能迅速转化为现实的生产力。

A FIVE-FACTOR ANALYSIS MODEL FOR THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF TYPICAL PRED SYSTEM

There are 5 main factors affecting the sustainable development of every country in the world, which are population, resource, environment, institution and technology. In this paper, a five-factor analysis model for the sustainable development of typical PRED system is generalized, and the importance extent of each factor is studied. The scale of regional population may speed up or slow down the regional e conomy development, and the situation of natural resources and geographical environments may also increase or reduce the difficulty of socio-economic development, but these 3 factors are not decisive, while only institution is the most important factor. The advanced science and technology will not be transformed into the real productivity without a good institutional systems.