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Decision-support tools for dynamic management |
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| Authors: | Heather Welch Stephanie Brodie Michael G Jacox Steven J Bograd Elliott L Hazen |
| Institution: | 1. Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA, 95064 U.S.A.;2. Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA, 95064 U.S.A.
Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Suite 255A, 99 Pacific Street, Heritage Harbor, Monterey, CA, 93940 U.S.A. Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 325 Broadway Street, Boulder, CO, 80305 U.S.A. |
| Abstract: | Spatial management is a valuable strategy to advance regional goals for nature conservation, economic development, and human health. One challenge of spatial management is navigating the prioritization of multiple features. This challenge becomes more pronounced in dynamic management scenarios, in which boundaries are flexible in space and time in response to changing biological, environmental, or socioeconomic conditions. To implement dynamic management, decision-support tools are needed to guide spatial prioritization as feature distributions shift under changing conditions. Marxan is a widely applied decision-support tool designed for static management scenarios, but its utility in dynamic management has not been evaluated. EcoCast is a new decision-support tool developed explicitly for the dynamic management of multiple features, but it lacks some of Marxan's functionality. We used a hindcast analysis to compare the capacity of these 2 tools to prioritize 4 marine species in a dynamic management scenario for fisheries sustainability. We successfully configured Marxan to operate dynamically on a daily time scale to resemble EcoCast. The relationship between EcoCast solutions and the underlying species distributions was more linear and less noisy, whereas Marxan solutions had more contrast between waters that were good and poor to fish. Neither decision-support tool clearly outperformed the other; the appropriateness of each depends on management purpose, resource-manager preference, and technological capacity of tool developers. Article impact statement: Marxan can function as a decision-support tool for dynamic management scenarios in which boundaries are flexible in space and time. |
| Keywords: | climate variability ecosystem management fisheries bycatch Marxan prioritization reserve design species distribution models captura accesoria por pesquerías diseño de reservas manejo de ecosistemas Marxan modelos de distribución de especies priorización variabilidad climática 气候变异 生态系统管理 渔业副渔获 Marxan 软件 优先保护 保护区设计 物种分布模型 |