Conservative versus Mean Risk Assessments: Implications for Superfund Policies

This paper explores how a shift to more central estimates of risk would affect EPA decisions to remediate hazardous waste sites in the Superfund program. Analysis of 141 sites indicates that the EPA's use of conservative parameter values results in risk estimates that are 27 times greater than those based on mean values. Over 40% of sites requiring remediation would shift into the discretionary cleanup range if mean parameters were used. Though this paper examines the effect of using mean parameters for contaminant concentrations, exposure duration, and ingestion rates, additional adjustments for other conservative parameters might increase this effect.