中国区域能源效率时空演进格局及其影响因素分析

将化石能源消费中产生的环境影响作为投入要素引入到全要素能源效率(Total-Factor En-ergy Efficiency,TFEE)的研究之中,是不断完善能效评价的重要途径。论文基于数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA),选取煤炭、原油、天然气、电力及燃料燃烧工业废气排放量作为投入变量,真实GDP(不变价)作为单一产出变量,借助于GIS空间分析技术,刻画了1997—2007年来中国区域全要素能源效率的时空演进格局。在此基础上,论文利用1998—2007年中国省际面板数据,通过建立TFEE固定影响模型进一步解析了中国区域TFEE的影响因素及其内在作用机理。研究表明:①中国区域TFEE整体水平不断改进,但区间差异持续扩大,区域分异态势显著;②中国TFEE高效区空间分布从南部沿海"线"状向南部片区"面"状格局演进;③全国层面上看,技术进步、经济开放性及能源消费结构与TFEE存在显著正相关关系,而产业结构、市场化水平及能源资源禀赋则与之存在显著负相关关系;④区域层面上看,技术进步成为各区域改进TFEE最为关键的一环,与TFEE存在显著正相关关系,而产业结构及市场化水平对绝大多数区域TFEE存在显著影响。

Spation-temporal Evolution Pattern and Influential Factor of Regional Total Factor Energy Efficiency in China

The most important contributions of this paper attempt to advance the measurement of TFEE by introducing environmental impact associated with energy consumption as one of the inputs into the evaluation. We employ data envelopment analysis (DEA) to evaluate TFEE of 30 administrative regions in China (not including Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan due to no data) for the period 1997-2007. In our DEA model, coal, crude oil, natural gas, electricity and fuel combustion emissions from industrial sector are the five inputs and real GDP is the single output. Based on spatial analysis techniques with GIS software, we investigate the spatio-temporal evolution pattern of regional TFEE. On the basis of panel data at the provincial level in the period of 1998-2007, we develop the fixed-effect model of TFEE to further explore influential factors and their underlying mechanisms. Results are as follows:1) regional TFEE of China improves constantly, while inter-provincial disparity of TFEE continues to widen and a significant divergent trend is found. 2) The spatial pattern of high-TFEE area in China evolutes from "line" of the south coast to the "surface" of the southern area. 3) The empirical analysis of fixed-effect model at national-level shows that there is significant positive correlation between technological progress, economic openness, energy consumption structure (independent variables )and TFEE(dependent variable), while there is a significant negative relationship between industrial structure, marketization level and energy resource endowments (independent variables ) and TFEE(dependent variable). 4) The empirical analysis of fixed-effect model at national-level shows that technological progress has the most positive effect on regional TFEE, and the other two main factors affecting TFEE of most regions are industrial structure and marketization level.