基于可公度法的航材故障预测

介绍了可公度性的概念和可公度信息预测理论。应用可公度信息预测理论,以故障时间窗口期为研究对象,对航材故障预测进行了初步探索,进而建立了一种较为实用的预测模型,并且给出了具体算例,验证所建模型的科学性和有效性。通过与指数平滑法预测模型对比可看到可公度预测模型精度更高且计算模型更为简单,为航材故障次数预测提供了一种解决方案。进而可以更好地应用在实践当中,提高航材管理水平,保障飞行任务的完成。

Fault Forecast of Air Materiel Spare Parts Based on Commonsurable Method

The concept of commensurability and the prediction theory of commonsurable information were introduced. The fault forecast of air materiel spare parts was studied with the object of the time window of faults based on the prediction theory of commonsurable information. A practical prediction model was established and the scientificity and validity of the model was verified with calculation examples. Commensurability prediction model was compared with exponential smoothing model. The result showed that commensurability prediction model is of higher precision and the calculation model is simpler. The purpose was to provide a feasible method for the fault prediction of air materiel spare parts.