| 油气输送用焊接钢管可靠性评估方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵新伟,罗金恒,李鹤林,杨龙.油气输送用焊接钢管可靠性评估方法[J].中国安全科学学报,2004,14(9):7-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵新伟 罗金恒 李鹤林 杨龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国石油天然气集团公司管材研究所
2. 中国石油天然气集团公司管材研究所;西安交通大学材料科学与工程学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国石油天然气集团公司2000年重点技术开发项目(2000412-8). |
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| 摘 要： | 笔者研究并建立了焊接钢管焊缝漏检缺陷的概率分布模型及材料性能、输送压力的概率分布模型 ;采用失效评估图 (FAD)技术 ,引入可靠性理论 ,建立了油气输送管线用焊接钢管的可靠性评估模型和方法 ,即基于FAD技术的Monte Carlo方法 ;计算得出西气东输用焊接钢管的失效概率低于 10 -5,可靠度超过 0 .99999,达到DNVRPF10 1标准对管道可靠度的要求。
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| 关 键 词： | 焊接钢管 缺陷漏检概率 失效评估图(FAD) 蒙特-卡罗模拟计算法 西气东输管道 |
Reliability Assessment Method for Welded Steel Pipe Used in Oil & Gas Transmission |
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| Abstract: | Probabilistic distribution model for welding flaws undetected, material mechanical properties and internal pressure of welded steel pipe are investigated. Reliability calculation model and method for welded steel pipe used in oil and gas pipeline are established with reliability theory based on failure assessment diagram (FAD) technology, namely, Monte-Carlo simulation calculation method based FAD. The failure probability of welded steel pipe used in West-East gas pipeline is less than 10 -5 , and its reliability is more than 0.999*!99 . Its probability meets the demand of DNV RP F101 standard though flaws undetected with a certain probability do exist. |
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| Keywords: | Welded steel pipe Probability of flaws undetected Failure assessment diagram (FAD) Monte-Carlo simulation calculation method West-East gas pipeline |
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