一种新型的区域定量风险评估模型及应用

为了综合评估区域风险可接受性，深度挖掘潜在风险，优化风险决策，从死亡及受伤风险2方面研究了化工行业的死亡及受伤风险可接受标准（以下简称“双标准”），提出基于“双标准”的新型区域定量风险评估模型。以1 000 m³柴油罐池火灾事故为对象，通过池火事故后果模型、概率模型及可接受风险模型的创新性使用，对其在油罐区域定量风险评估中的初步运用进行研究。结果表明:该装置在池火事故下的个人死亡风险和社会受伤风险未能达到标准要求，综合评估结果为风险不可接受；“双标准”综合评估法在区域定量风险评估中的应用具有可行性和一定参考价值 。

A new model of regional quantitative risk assessment and its application

In order to comprehensively assess the acceptability of regional risk, deeply explore the potential risk and optimize the risk decision, the acceptable risk criteria (hereinafter referred to briefly as "double criteria") in the chemical industry were studied from two aspects of the risk of death and injury combined with the previous research results, and a new model of regional quantitative risk assessment based on "double criteria" was put forward. Taking the pool fire accident of a 1 000 m3 diesel tank as example, the preliminary application of this model in the regional quantitative risk assessment of oil tank was studied through the innovative usage of the consequence model, probability model and acceptable risk model of pool fire accident. The results showed that the risk of individual death and social injury in the pool fire accident of this installation could not meet the requirements of the criteria, and the comprehensive assessment result was unacceptable. The application of the "double criteria" comprehensive assessment method in regional quantitative risk assessment is not only feasible but also of a certain reference value.