稠油热采井管柱失效动态风险分析研究

为保证稠油热采井筒管柱的安全运行，采用故障树与贝叶斯网络相结合的方法开展稠油热采井管柱失效风险分析，应用故障树分析方法定性识别管柱失效诱因，建立稠油热采井管柱失效场景演化模型，并将故障树转化为贝叶斯网络模型，应用贝叶斯网络对管柱失效风险进行定量分析，得出热采井管柱失效的关键致因和管柱失效的动态失效概率，以新疆油田某区块热采井的管柱失效为对象进行了案例分析。研究结果表明，该方法可为稠油热采井管柱失效风险分析及井筒完整性管理提供理论支撑和工程设计参考。

Dynamic risk analysis on string failure of heavy oil thermal-recovery well

To ensure the safe operation of wellbore string in the heavy oil thermal-recovery well, the fault tree and Bayesian network were combined to analyze the failure risk of string in the heavy oil thermal-recovery well. The method of fault tree analysis was used to identify the failure incentives of string qualitatively, and an evolution model of failure scenarios for the string in the heavy oil thermal-recovery well was established. The fault tree was converted into the Bayesian network model, and the Bayesian network was applied to quantitatively analyze the failure risk of string. The key causes and dynamic failure probability of string failure in the thermal-recovery well were obtained, and a case analysis was carried out by taking the string failure of the thermal-recovery well in a certain block of Xinjiang Oilfield as the object. The results showed that this method can provide the theoretical support and engineering design reference for the risk analysis on string failure and wellbore integrity management of the heavy oil thermal-recovery wells.