超大城市公共安全风险评估、归因与防范

为了科学评价超大城市公共安全风险，从人口状况、能力指标和脆弱性指标着手，建立超大城市公共安全评估指标体系。基于上海市2007—2016年的部分数据，采用主成分分析法对上海市公共安全风险17个指标进行测度，找出影响公共安全水平的重要因子。同时，基于统计数据分析了公共安全事件风险源和5个潜在风险点，并提出防范建议。研究结果表明:近10 a来，上海公共安全状况存在明显改善，且地区经济与人口因子、公共城建与生态能力因子是影响上海城市公共安全风险最主要的2个因素；汽车交通事故、电气原因造成的火灾事故、盗窃、殴打他人是扰乱城市公共安全最突出的因素。

Assessment,attribution and prevention of public safety risk in megacity

To assess the public safety risk of megacity scientifically, starting from the population situation, ability index and vulnerability index, an index system of public safety assessment for the megacity was established. Based on partial data of Shanghai from 2007 to 2016, 17 indexes of public safety risk in Shanghai were measured by using the principal component analysis method, and the important factors influencing the public safety level were found out. Meanwhile, the risk sources and 5 potential risk points of public safety events were analyzed based on the statistical data, and the prevention suggestions were put forward. The results showed that in the recent 10 years, the public safety situation of Shanghai improved obviously, and the regional economic and population factor and the public construction and ecological ability factor were the major factors influencing the urban public safety risk of Shanghai. The motor traffic accidents, fire accidents caused by electrical reasons, theft and assaulting others were the most outstanding factors disturbing the urban public safety.