基于因子分析与突变级数法的飞行安全状态评价研究

为合理评价航空公司的飞行安全状态，利用QAR超限事件作为原始数据，运用因子分析法确定评价指标及其重要程度。针对飞行运行的动态性，引入无需确定指标权重的突变级数法构建评价模型；利用某航空公司2015和2016年24个月的QAR数据，使用该模型进行评价，所得的评价结果与该公司的实际飞行安全状态基本相符合。结果表明:基于因子分析与突变级数法的飞行安全状态评价模型可用于实际评价工作中，且评价结果较为真实可靠。

Research on evaluation of flight safety situation based on factor analysis and catastrophe progression method

In order to evaluate the flight safety situation of the airlines reasonably, the evaluation indexes and their importance degree were determined by using the factor analysis method through taking the quick access recorder(QAR) exceedance events as the original data. Aiming at the dynamics of the flight operation, an evaluation model was established by introducing into the catastrophe progression method without determining the weights of the indexes. The QAR data of a certain airline in 24 months from 2015 to 2016 were evaluated by the model, and the evaluation results were basically consistent with the actual flight safety situation of the airline. It showed that the evaluation model of flight safety situation based on the factor analysis and catastrophe progression method can be used in the actual evaluation work, and the evaluation results will be relatively true and reliable.