突发事件下多种信息交互传播的动力机制与调控策略

针对突发事件下多种信息共存情境中信息交互传播的调控问题，首先界定了该情境中“涌现→传播”过程的组成要素，建立了信息交互关系框架及其系统动力学模型；其次，通过设计和仿真基础情景，将仿真结果与案例进行对比，检验模型的模拟趋势与现实状况的一致性；最后，通过设计和仿真实验情景，考查决策者的关键可控因素对系统演化的影响。研究结果表明:官方渠道所发布信息的可信度、平均个体传播量及群体的立场认知水平，与相信和传播官方渠道信息的人数均正相关，而与相信和传播民间渠道信息的人数均负相关；对各群体数量演化影响的显著性而言，官方渠道信息的平均个体传播量最高，官方渠道信息的可信度次之，群体的立场认知水平较低。

Dynamic mechanism and regulation strategies for interactive dissemination of multi-information in emergencies

Aiming at the problem of regulating the interactive dissemination of information under the situation of multi-information coexisting in the emergencies, the key components in the process of "from emergence to dissemination" under this situation were defined, and a frame of information interaction relationship and its system dynamics model were established. Then, by designing and simulating the basic scenario, the simulation results were compared with the cases to verify the consistency between the model's simulation trend and the practical situation. Finally, several experimental scenarios were designed and simulated to test the effect of key controlled factors of decision-makers on the evolution of system. The results showed that the credibility and average individual dissemination quantity (AIDQ) of information from official channels (IFOC), and the cognition level on position of group (CLPG) were positively correlated with the number of people who believe and disseminate IFOC respectively, whereas negatively related to the number of people who believe and disseminate the information from folk channels respectively. For the significance of effect on the evolution of the number of groups, the AIDQ of IFOC was the highest, the credibility of IFOC took the second place, and the CLPG was the lowest.