云南省水资源时空分布格局及综合评价

水资源安全是山区资源环境安全和山区资源环境承载力研究的核心问题之一。在分析云南省水资源时空分布格局的基础上，提出了云南省水资源安全综合评价指标体系，采用层次分析法确定了各指标的权重，构建了云南省水资源安全综合评价模型，对云南省水资源安全状态以及优、劣势因素进行了评价分析。研究结果表明云南省水资源时空分布不均，社会经济条件较好的滇中地区水资源短缺严重，在95%保证率下，昆明市人均水资源量仅为611m³，水资源压力最大。对云南省各市（州）水资源安全综合评价表明，云南省水资源安全地域差异突出，云南省南部和西南部水资源安全形势较好，其中西双版纳州和德宏州水资源安全指数超过0.58，属安全等级；云南省东部地区水资源安全形势不容乐观，其中云南省东北部的昭通市水资源安全形势最为严峻，水资源安全指数仅为0.24，是全省平均水平的55.68%；另外，滇中地区的楚雄州由于地处干热河谷地区，季节性水资源短缺非常严重，水资源安全问题同样严重。水资源量是影响云南省水资源安全最重要的因素，工程性缺水和干旱问题亦非常突出。因此，必须加强水利工程建设力度，重点解决人畜饮水困难问题，提高农田旱涝保收率，同时重视水生态环境保护，提高水资源利用效率，提升抵御干旱灾害和水资源短缺的能力。

Research on the Water Resource Security and Its Temporal-Spatial Distributions of Yunnan Province,China

Water resource security is one of the core issues in resource and environment security and capacity in mountain areas. However, the model of water resource security assessment is still under-explored. Aiming at the current situation of water resource utilization and its temporal-spatial distributions in Yunnan Province, this paper establishes the index system for integration assessment on water resource security, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used to compute the weights of the index system. So, a regional water resource security assessment model for Yunnan Province which could also be applied to other mountain areas was constructed. The result showed that water resources were unevenly distributed in time and space in Yunnan Province. Especially, the situation of water resources shortages is very serious in the central part where the conditions for social and economic development are better. Taking Kunming city for example, the water resources amount per capita was only 611 m³ under the assuring rate of 95%. The result of the assessment of water resources security showed that the difference was obvious in different place. The situation is better in south and southwest of Yunnan Province, but worse in the eastern part. The water resources security situation of Zhaotong city which is located in the northeastern part of the province is most serious, and the water resources security index is only 0.24, occupying 55.68% of the average value of Yunnan. Additionally, the Yi Autonomous Prefecture of Chuxiong which is located in central Yunnan Province has also a serious water shortage situation, mainly because of the climate of dry-hot valley. Water resources amount is the most important factor in water resources security in Yunnan Province, and the water shortages resulting from lack of water conservancy and drought is also very important in Yunnan Province. So, the following measures should be taken to enhance the resistance to drought and shortage of water resources capacity, such as strengthening the construction of water conservancy project, focusing on resolving the difficult problems in drinking water of people and large live stocks, improving farmland drought and flood insurance rate, paying attention to water environmental protection and development, and raising the utilization efficiency of water resources.