福利经济视角下国家煤炭应急储备规模模型构建及敏感性分析

从福利经济视角，运用成本收益分析法，结合煤炭储备产品特点，构建国家煤炭应急储备规模模型。通过参数估计、数值模拟，测算了基准情景下国家煤炭应急储备最优规模，通过敏感性分析挖掘影响煤炭应急储备规模的主要因素。研究结果表明：国家煤炭应急储备最优规模为国家煤炭应急储备边际收益等于边际成本时的规模；通过对煤炭需求价格弹性、煤炭储备成本、煤炭价格、煤炭供应中断规模等参数估计和数值模拟，得出基准情景下的最优储备规模为16 d 煤炭消费量，相当于当年度煤炭消费总量的4%~5%；通过最优储备规模的敏感性分析，得出主要影响因素为煤炭需求价格弹性和煤炭供应中断规模。研究结论可为国家决策煤炭应急储备规模提供理论依据和数据支持。

National Coal Emergency Reserve Scale Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis from Welfare Economic Perspective

Decision-making of optimal scale of coal emergency reserve is the core problem in coal emergency reserve management. From the perspective of welfare economy, using costbenefit analysis method and combining the characteristics of coal reserves products, we built the national coal emergency reserve scale model. Through the parameter estimation, numerical simulation, the optimal scale of national coal emergency reserve was estimated under the baseline scenario and its main influencing factors were excavated by sensitivity analysis. The results show that: the optimal scale of national coal emergency reserve is the scale when the national coal emergency reserve marginal revenue equals to its marginal cost; under baseline scenario the optimal reserve scale is 16 days of coal consumption amount which is equivalent to the 4%-5% of annual total coal consumption through parameter estimations of the price elasticity of coal demand, coal reserve cost, coal price and coal supply interruption scale by using numerical simulation; the price elasticity of coal demand and coal supply interruption scale are the two main factors which influence the optimal reserve scale by sensitivity analysis, if the price elasticity of coal demand transfers from -0.12 to -0.1, -0.13, -0.15, the optimal coal emergency reserve scale would respectively change from 16 days to 27 days, 12 days and 7 days, and if the average number of days of coal supplies disruptions transfers from 14 days to 20 days, 12 days and 7 days, the optimal reserve scale would respectively change from 16 days to 44 days, 9 days and 1 day. That if the average number of days of coal supplies disruptions is 7 days and below, the amount of national coal emergency reserves is built equaling to 1 day amount of the coal consumption. The conclusions of the study can provide a theoretical basis and data support for the decision-making of national coal emergency reserve scale.