中国经济发展与水资源利用脱钩态势评价与展望

通过国内外相关文献研究与数据收集，构建了中国经济发展与水资源利用的脱钩时态分析模型。并应用该模型实证分析了新中国成立后1953—2010 年中国经济发展与水资源利用的脱钩态势，系统剖析了经济发展与水资源利用脱钩的内在机理。在此基础上，根据水资源消耗利用变化趋势，采用Logistic 模型，对我国水资源需求利用的自然发展趋势进行预测，并根据国家发展规划对水资源需求利用预测结果进行修正。同时从社会政治、经济技术方面进行水资源利用脱钩的可行性分析。结果表明，未来10 a，我国用水总量增长速度将加速减慢。预期至2020 年左右，我国经济发展与水资源利用有望保持绝对脱钩的发展态势，用水总量预计将进入缓慢下降期。

Evaluation and Prospect on the Decoupling Trend of Economic Development and Water Resource Utilization in China

According to the literature research and data collection at home and abroad, the research summary of the decoupling theory and its application in the water resource management is analyzed. Referring to the OECD's system index of the decoupling methodology, the decoupling state between economic development and utilization of water resources in China is given, the system evaluation index of economic development and water resource utilization in China is built, to classify rationally the decoupling status of economic development and water resource utilization, and the decoupling model of economic development and water resource utilization is provided to analyze the decoupling state between economic development and utilization of water resources in China in 1953-2010. Then, the changing state of the amount of water resources and proportions of water consumption for different industries are analyzed comprehensively for the same period, based on the analysis on the decoupling trend of economic development and water resource utilization in China, according to the changing tendency of the population carrying capacities and water consumption after liberation, the decoupling mechanism of economic development and water resource utilization is discussed and analyzed further. The results show, the growth rate of water consumption in different industries is generally in a downward trend after liberation. The growth rate of water consumption is affected by different sectors of agriculture, industry, and domestic water consumption simultaneously. The dependent degree of agricultural water to agricultural development is obviously declining, the dependent degree of industrial water to industrial development is also obviously declining, and the use efficiency of domestic water is obviously increasing. According to the changing trend of water resource utilization, the water demand forecasting of general development with Logistic model is presented, and the changing state of the utilization of water resources with Logistic model in 1998-2030 is given, then, the results of water demand is modified combined with national development planning, and finally, water demand in 2015, 2020 and 2030 is predicted. The results show, the decoupling trend of economic development and water resource utilization in China is still weak, the growth rate of the water demand will decrease acceleratedly in further 10 years with national development planning and government macro-control and market regulation. The feasibility analysis of the decoupling of water resource utilization is carried out, from the angles of socio-politics and economic-technology. The results show, with the gradual improvement of water use efficiency, the growth rate of water demand will be acceleratedly declining in 2011-2020, the amount of water demand is 6282×10⁸-6331.4×10⁸m³ in 2015, 6614×10⁸-6675×10⁸m³ in 2020 and 6678.3×10⁸-6773×10⁸m³ in 2030. The decoupling trend economic development and water resource utilization will be strong absolutely in 2020, and the stage of water consumption will get into the decreased period, then the decoupling status of economic development and water resource utilization will be realized.