中亚地区气候生产潜力时空变化特征

根据中亚5 国100 个气象站1901-2000 年月平均温度和降水资料，运用Miami、Thornthwaite Memorial 模型对中亚地区气候生产潜力进行了计算，用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall 法、并结合ArcGIS 和SPSS 对其时空变化特征及驱动力进行了分析。结果表明：①中亚地区100 a 降水气候生产潜力（Yr）和蒸散气候生产潜力（Ye）均呈逐渐增加的趋势，温度气候生产潜力（Yt）趋势相反，Yr 和Ye 均发生了4 次突变，Yt 没有发生突变；②气候生产潜力区域差异明显，其中，Yt 呈从西南向东北减少的趋势，Yr 和Ye 变化比较复杂，大致具有东部大于西部的规律；③增温增湿的气候变化趋势有利于中亚气候生产潜力的提高，中亚气候生产潜力对增湿的响应更敏感。

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Potential Climate Productivity in Central Asia

Central Asia is located in the hinterland of the Eurasia, comprising five countries-Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Most of the land belongs to arid land with extreme continental climate. The population is 60.73 million, and the area is 392.68×10⁴ km². Based on the monitoring data of monthly air temperature and precipitation of 100 selected weather stations from 1901 to 2000 in Central Asia, using the Miami and Thornthwaite Memorial model to calculate potential climate productivity, the characteristics of temperal and spatial of potential climate productivity are analyzed with climatic trend rate, Mann-Kendall test, SPSS and ArcGIS methods. The results showed as follows: 1) Precipitation potential climate productivity (Yr) and evapotranspiration climate potential productivity (Ye) in Central Asia in 100 years appeared a gradual increasing trend, temperature potential climate productivity (Yt) is in an opposite trend, Yr and Ye witnessed four times of mutation, there was none in Yt. 2) Potential climate productivity had obviously regional difference, such as, Yt showed a reducing trend from southwest to northeast, spatial distribution of Yr and Ye was complicated, the eastern was more than the western, generally. 3) Warm and wet climate changing trend is beneficial to the improvement of climate potential productivity, climate potential productivity was more sensitive to humidifying.