一种基于层次分析法的危险化学品源安全评价综合模型

危险化学品源的安全评价是安全生产管理中的一项重要内容.目前用于危险化学品源安全评价与分级的常用方法有后果分析法、道指数法、蒙德指数法以及使用临界系数判别重大危险源的方法等.在实际应用中,单独使用某一方法时,由于存在各种片面性问题而得不到满意的评价结果; 几种方法同时使用时,其评价指标、评价结果以及结果的形式又会互相冲突.为解决上述问题,建立了基于层次分析法的综合评价模型.首先,根据安全评价要求构建3层次的评价体系,在各层次中构造判断矩阵,并计算4种常用方法相对综合评价模型的置信度; 其次,对各方法统一危险分级标准,均采用危险分数划定危险级别,并取各危险分数的加权平均值--综合危险分数作为综合评价模型下的危险源分级标准.采用综合评价模型可消除单一方法进行评价时的片面性和偏差,同时,评价结果的一致化使得判断危险化学品源的危险级别以及由此采取相应级别的管理措施成为可能,将更有利于实际安全生产管理指导.

A newly improved integrated safety assessment approach to the dangerous chemicals based on AHP

The paper is aimed to introduce a renovated integrated safety assessment method to the management of dangerous chemicals. As is known, some of the following safety assessment methods have so far been widely adopted in the area of dangerous chemicals management, such as effect analysis, DOW Fire & Explosion Index method, MOND Fire, Explosion and Toxicity Index method, or the method just for ranking them as major hazards or merely a critical factor. The above methods have had different assessment criteria, different result forms as well as various shortcomings in practical application. Therefore, the assessment results would be dissatisfactory if only any single method were to apply. But, if two or more methods were adopted at the same time, the assessment results would be made contradictory. It is just for this reason that we have worked out a method known as integrated safety assessment approach to the dangerous chemicals based on analytic hierarchical process (AHP) method. The advantage of the so-called integrated safety assessment approach lies in, first of all, that the safety assessment in dealing with the dangerous chemicals involves a three-level evaluation system, which is established based on the objectively existing requirements and the safe management demands with the results being regarded as their own creditable weight. Secondly, the unique classification index, known as hazard index, has been proposed, which classifies the hazards involved into five levels. In fact, each safety assessment method should be translated into a corresponding hazard index. Third, a weighed average hazard index has also been accounted by adding the products of the hazard index and creditable weight of each safety assessment method, which can be regarded as representation of the real dangerous level. And, finally, we have presented a case study to show how to implement the assessment process.