| 可进行择优决策的灰色预测GM（1,1）动态模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡定军,郑宏翔.可进行择优决策的灰色预测GM（1,1）动态模型[J].灾害学,1992,7(4):13-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡定军 郑宏翔 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西省气象台，江西省气象台 南昌 330046，南昌 330046 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文提出了一个可进行择优决策的GM(1、1)优化模型。这个模型使原序列的内含信息得到充分开发利用,较好地解决了大样本序列用GM(1、1)建模的问题。实例证明:通过择优指数C_i择取的、以a、u参数外延得到的优化模型,抓住了原序列的主要变化规律,是一个平稳的、具有一定预测能力的模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测模型 气象 优化决策 |
GREY PREDICATION DYNAMIC MODEL WITH ALTERNATIVE OPTIMUM DECISION |
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| Cai Dingjun Zheng Hongxian.GREY PREDICATION DYNAMIC MODEL WITH ALTERNATIVE OPTIMUM DECISION[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1992,7(4):13-17. |
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| Authors: | Cai Dingjun Zheng Hongxian |
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| Institution: | Meteorological Station of Jangxi Province |
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| Abstract: | In the paper, we presented an improved GM(1,1) model to make optimum decision, which can fully utilize the information containing in the original series so that we can establish a better prediction model with large sample series. Examples demonstrated that the optimum model with selected index G and extended parameters a and u can reflect the main rules of the variation in original series. The model is stationary and has a certain prediction ability. |
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| Keywords: | Grey predication model Meteorology Optimum decision |
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