| Population Ageing and Sustainable Development Research in China |
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| 引用本文： | Li Hongxin Electronic Commerce Institute,Dongbei University of Finance & Economics,Dalian 116025,China. Population Ageing and Sustainable Development Research in China[J]. 中国人口．资源与环境(英文版), 2004, 2(3) |
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| 作者姓名： | Li Hongxin Electronic Commerce Institute Dongbei University of Finance & Economics Dalian 116025 China |
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| 作者单位： | Li Hongxin Electronic Commerce Institute，Dongbei University of Finance & Economics，Dalian 116025，China |
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| 基金项目： | The work on this paper was financial supported by China Scholarship Council ( CSC 20821103 ) Cooperation Program of Canada & China: CCUIPP-NSFC-2001(70142029). The author wishes to thank Professor M reret e of Ottawa University, Canada, for his technical guidance and valuable comments. |
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| 摘 要： | According to the United Nations population projections, the population of the elderly is expected to roughly triple in China from 2000 to 2050, particularly when the generations who were born between the 1950s and 1970s move through the age structure, and also because people are living longer and fertility rates have fallen, population aging is expected to put pressure on government's fiscal balance through higher old-age security benefits and health-care expenditures. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generation structure. Further analysis using model simulation illustrates that the alternative schemes for the benefit rate, retirement age and technological progress are likely to be beneficial, and that an obvious slow-down in the growth of living standards is likely to be avoided.
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Population Ageing and Sustainable Development Research in China |
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| LI Hongxin. Population Ageing and Sustainable Development Research in China[J]. Chinese JOurnal of Population Resources and Environment, 2004, 2(3) |
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| Authors: | LI Hongxin |
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| Affiliation: | Electronic Commerce,Dongbei University of Finance & Econmics,Dalian 116025,China |
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| Abstract: | According to the United Nations population projections, the population of the elderly is expected to roughly triple in China from 2000 to 2050, particularly when the generations who were born between the 1950s and 1970s move through the age structure, and also because people are living longer and fertility rates have fallen, population aging is expected to put pressure on government's fiscal balance through higher old-age security benefits and health-care expenditures. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generation structure. Further analysis using model simulation illustrates that the alternative schemes for the benefit rate, retirement age and technological progress are likely to be beneficial, and that an obvious slow-down in the growth of living standards is likely to be avoided. |
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| Keywords: | population ageing CGE model Sustainable development pension system reform |
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