基于水环境约束的抚仙湖流域农业结构调整研究

农业面源污染严重污染水体，是水体富营养化和水质恶化的主要污染源. 在考虑水环境容量农业分配量、农业面源污染削减、粮食及副食品安全的基础上，建立抚仙湖流域农业产业结构优化调整的系统动力学模型，并设置惯性发展和目标导向2种发展方案进行仿真模拟. 结果表明:目标导向发展方案可以有效降低流域内污染物入湖量，TN和TP分别削减了221.45和24.74 t，处在允许的水环境容量农业分配量范围内. 根据调整优化结果，建议在抚仙湖流域大力发展绿色有机生态农业，形成观光休闲农业产业；建立集中养殖小区，采用立体式生态饲养畜禽模式. 

Research on Agricultural Structure Regulation in Fuxian Lake Basin Based on Water Environment Constraints

Agricultural non-point source pollution is a major source of lake eutrophication and deterioration of water quality in seriously polluted water. Based on consideration of agricultural allocation of water environment capacity, agricultural non-point pollution reduction and food security, a system dynamics (SD) model of agricultural structure optimization and regulation in Fuxian lake basin was proposed in this study. Two kinds of development schemas were designed for simulation, including inertial development and goal-oriented development. The results indicated that the goal-oriented development schema could effectively reduce the lake input pollutants. The reduction amounts of TN and TP from the goal-oriented development schema were 221.45 and 24.74 t/a, respectively, which were lower than the permission of agricultural allocation. The optimal results demonstrated that green organic eco-agriculture should be highly recommended to form agricultural tourism and leisure industry in Fuxian lake basin, and centralized breeding plots need to be established with a three-dimensional model of eco-farm livestock and poultry.