对外经济贸易对中国碳排放的影响:基于省级面板数据的实证分析

改革开放以来,我国的对外经济贸易有了显著的发展,外商直接投资和进出口的快速增长有效地推动了经济的快速发展。然而在经济发展的同时,我国碳排放水平日益提高,已成为全球最大排放国。为了更好地管控碳排放,研究外商直接投资(FDI),对外贸易与碳排放的关系具有重要意义。本文通过对我国1995—2011年29个省(市、自治区)的FDI、对外贸易对碳排放的动态效应分析发现,FDI与进出口水平的提升均有利于降低我国碳排放的水平,“污染天堂”假说在我国并未得到证实。同时,本文验证了“环境库兹涅茨曲线”在我国的存在,证实了我国的碳排放水平与人均GDP存在倒“U”型关系。

Effects of Foreign Business on Carbon Emission in China: A Provincial Panel Data Based Analysis

China''s foreign business has been developed significantlysince its reform and opening-up. The rapid growth of FDI and total volume of foreign trade had helped to boost China''s economic development. However, meanwhile China''s carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions had also increased at a remarkable speed, and China has already become the largest CO₂ emitter. To curb CO₂ emissions more effectively, it is important and meaningful to investigate the relationship between China''s CO₂ emissions and the level of foreign business. In this research, we utilized China''s provincial panel data (1995-2011) to estimate the dynamic relationship between FDI, foreign trade and CO₂ emissions. The results showed that higher levels of FDI and foreign trade contributed to decrease CO₂ emissions when other conditions were equal. Therefore the hypothesis of pollution paradise is not valid in China. Meanwhile, the estimation results also verified the existence of inverted-U shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for CO₂ emissions in China.