Stochastic evaluation of mass discharge from pointlike concentration measurements |
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| Authors: | Ronnie L Schwede Olaf A Cirpka |
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| Institution: | 1. Hydrologic Science and Engineering Program, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401, United States;2. U.S. Geological Survey, 3215 Marine Street, Suite E-127, Boulder, CO 80303, United States;1. Technische Universität Dresden, Institute for Groundwater Management, D-01062 Dresden, Germany;2. School of Earth Sciences, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA;3. Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research — UFZ, Department of Environmental Informatics, Permoserstr. 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany;4. Technische Universität Dresden, Applied Environmental System Analysis, D-01062 Dresden, Germany;1. Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Separation and Conversion Technology, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium;2. Laboratory of Microbial Ecology and Technology (LabMET), Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, 9000 Gent, Belgium;3. Institute of Groundwater Ecology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-National Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstrasse 1, D-85764 Neuherberg, Germany;4. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue W., Waterloo, Ont. N2L 3G1, Canada |
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| Abstract: | The contaminant mass discharge crossing a control plane is an important metric in the assessment of natural attenuation at contaminated sites. For risk-assessment purposes, the mass discharge must be estimated together with a level of uncertainty. We present a conditional Monte Carlo approach that allows estimating the statistical distribution of mass discharge. The approach is based on conditioning multiple realizations of the hydraulic conductivity field on all data available. We jointly determine a first-order decay coefficient in each realization, leading to conditional statistical distributions of all estimated parameters and the total mass discharge. The resulting statistical distribution of contaminant mass discharges can be used in the assessment of risks at the contaminated site. The method is applied to data of hypothetical test cases, which gives the opportunity to compare estimation results to the true field. As concentration data, we account for pointlike measurements obtained in multi-level sampling wells. The obtained empirical distribution of mass discharge crossing the multi-level sampling fence could be well fitted by a log-normal distribution. |
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