病源性早衰生理指标与小麦条锈病的马尔柯夫链预测

针对四川小麦生长发育中，后期锈病病害蔓延导致冠叶感病早衰、致使小麦减产的生产实际，采用控制性盆载试验和田间试验，研究了小麦感染锈病后对活性氧代谢系统、直光合功能的影响，筛选具有预测性能的生理指标作为发病程度的预测标准，应用马尔柯夫链预测方法，对小麦条锈病的发病危害程度进行预测和拟合检验，结果表明：以单叶光合速率的异常变化的大小作为小麦条锈病发生程度的指标具有宏观模糊性，有一定的代表性，本方法简单易行，拟合率较高，有一定的可靠性和实用性，本研究结果分别在锈病危害的预测、防治等方面都具有重要的理论和实践意义。

PHYSIOLOGICAL INDICES OF EARLY AGING OF WHEAT LEAVES FROM RUST AND WHEAT RUST FORECAST THROUGH MARKOV CHAIN

Rust often makes early aging for top leaves in the medium and late stages of wheat growth in Sichuan and causes reduction of wheat yield. The effect of rust on the metabolism system of active oxygen and photosynthetic capacity of wheat leaves was studied under controlled pot culture and field culture. Forecast of rust incidence and fit test were carried out by means of some physiological indices which were representative through Markov chain. The result showed that abnormal change value of leaf photosynthetic rate as a forecast index of rust incidence was representative and had higher fit degree, and this method is reliable and practical to a certain extend and is easi to be adopted.The research result is important for forecasting, preventing and controlling wheat rust. Tab 3, Ref 10